Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift in Position & Settled Debates
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Risk and A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to recall the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
